For a year now, Ted Cruz has been ringing the bell warning about the coming Democrat wave in Texas. One key fact last night confirmed his fears.
Ted Cruz won big last night. His primary election success was convincing, as was the Republican vote advantage over the Democrats led by Senate primary winner Robert “Beto” O’Rourke. But Ted Cruz isn’t worried about himself. He’ll win. What Ted Cruz is worried about is the US House of Representatives.
Cruz said back in October that Republicans were facing a potential “bloodbath.” And the primary results last night show that’s still possible.
In the 2012 primary first round, David Dewhurst, Ted Cruz, and the rest of the Republicans combined for 1.4 million votes in that hotly contested open seat primary. However the Democrats only managed 0.5 million. That huge advantage made life easy for Texas Republicans that year.
Last night’s primary first round however was different. Ted Cruz alone got 1.3 million votes, and the Republican field combined for 1.5 million, beating out the 2012 turnout in a race that was barely contested. But the Democrats more than doubled their votes, collecting 1.0 million in total. When you can double your turnout, you’re accomplishing something.
It’s not Ted Cruz at risk of losing this year. Complacent Republicans below him on the ticket might. The party is at risk this year, and the state of Texas has many gerrymandered seats that Republicans won by 10-15 points last cycle. A huge increase in Democrat turnout could swamp any of those seats, and that’s why Ted Cruz is right to worry about a bloodbath.